| ECONOMIC SITUATION |
 |
NATIONAL ECONOMY |
|
ASSAM ECONOMY |
|
|
| NATIONAL ECONOMY |
1.1.0
|
The
growth of National economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
at constant (1993-94) prices has been estimated at 4.0 per cent for
the year 2002-2003 (Quick Estimates) as compared to the growth rate
of 5.8 per cent (Provisional Estimates) achieved in 2001-2002 as released
by the Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India. The
Per Capita Net National Product at constant (1993-94) prices has been
worked out at Rs.10964 in 2002-2003 (Quick Estimates) as against Rs10774
in 2001-2002 (Provisional Estimates) and at current prices the same
was Rs18912 in 2002-2003 (Quick Estimates) as against Rs.17947 in
2001-2002 (Provisional Estimates). In respect of Per Capita Net National
Product, the year 2002-2003 (Quick Estimates) registered a growth
of 1.8 per cent in real terms and at current prices the growth of
the same was 5.4 per cent. As per the advance estimates for the year
2003-2004 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to increase by
8.1 per cent at constant (1993-94) prices and by 11.9 per cent at
current prices as compared to the growth rate of 4.0 per cent and
7.6 per cent respectively in the previous year. The Per Capita Income
in real term during 2003-2004 is likely to attain a level of Rs.11684
as compared to the quick estimates for the year 2002-2003 of Rs.10964. |
|
|
1.1.1
|
The
annual point-to-point inflation rate based on the Wholesale Price
Index (Base 1993-94=100) remained below 2 per cent till the end of
May 2002, and rose thereafter in between 3-4 per cent. The latest
annual point-to-point inflation rate for the week ended 18th January
2003 has touched 4.4 per cent and may creep up further if global oil
prices continue to rise. Inflation rate based on Consumer Price Index
(CPI) for Industrial Workers remained moderate during the year despite
draught, indicating comfortable availability of food items. The CPI
(IW) based inflation rate declined from 4.7 per cent in April 2002
to 3.2 per cent in December 2002. |
|
|
1.1.2
|
Agricultural
and allied sector growth is likely to register a decline in the current
year due to the severity of drought. The adverse weather conditions
affected the crop prospect heavily on Kharif crops. The food grains
production in 2002-2003 is likely to be lower which is estimated at
183.2 million tonnes compared to last year’s production of 212.02
million tonnes (fall of 13.6 per cent). The sharp fall in current
year’s food grain production, which is the lowest since 1996-97,
is mainly due to the decline in Kharif production from 111.5 million
tonnes last year to 90.3 million tonnes in the current year (fall
of 19.09 per cent). The food grain production of Rabi season is also
likely to drop to 92.9 million tonnes compared to last year’s
100.5 million tonnes (fall of 7.5 per cent). |
|
|
|
The
estimated production of Rice is 77.7 million tonnes in 2002-2003 as
against 93.1 million tonnes in 2001-2002. The production of Wheat
is likely to be 68.9 million tonnes as against 71.8 million tonnes
in 2001-2002. The estimated production of Coarse Cereals and Pulses
are 25.1 million tonnes and 11.5 million tonnes respectively in 2002-2003
as against the production of 33.9 million tonnes and 13.2 million
tonnes respectively in 2001-2002. Effect of drought is expected to
be severe on the production of commercial crops also. Only Jute and
Mesta production at 11.5 million bales in 2002-2003 as against 11.6
million bales in 2001-2002 fared better as severity of drought was
not felt in Jute and Mesta producing States. |
|
|
|
The
production of Tea has increased steadily from 761 million kilograms
in 1995-96 to 847 million kilograms 2001-2002; the percentage of increase
is 11.3 per cent. Coffee is another important plantation crop and
its production in the country has grown to reach over 306 thousand
tonnes in 2001-2002 from 170 thousand tonnes in 1990-91. There is
a steady growth in Rubber production too and 97 per cent of the country’s
demand for natural Rubber is met from domestic production. The production
of Rubber has increased from 580 thousand tonnes in 1997-98 to 638
thousand tonnes in 2002-2003. |
|
|
|
The
Index of Agricultural Production of 46 crops including plantations
crops with base triennium ending 1981-82=100 (revised) has decreased
to 156 (provisional) in 2002-2003 from 177 (provisional) in 2001-2002
thus showing a decline of 11.9 per cent during the year. |
|
|
1.1.3
|
The
Index of Industrial Production with base year 1993-94=100 has increased
to 170.5 in 2002-2003 from 167.0 in 2001-2002. It has displayed some
definite signs of improvement in the first eight months of the year
2002 showing an overall growth of 5.3 per cent over the same period
of 2001. The Mining and Quarrying sector showed a growth of 5.7 per
cent followed by 5.4 per cent and 4.0 per cent growth by Manufacturing
and Electricity sectors respectively during the period. The two key
elements, which led this improvement in Index of Industrial Production
growth, were Capital goods, which grew by 9.9 per cent and consumer
non-durables, which had growth of 12.7 per cent. |
|
|
|
Two
industries, which have experienced striking revivals in the current
year in the industrial sector, are Steel and Cement. The Textile industry
is a key area where India has an opportunity for labour intensive
exports. In the Oil and Gas industries, Crude Oil production has increased
from 21.24 million tonnes in 2001-2002 to 22.09 million tonnes in
20002-2003 (April-November) registering an increase of 4.0 per cent.
Natural Gas production rose to 20.61 billion cubic metres during the
year 2002 (April-November), which was 4.5 per cent higher than that
in the corresponding period of previous year. The Coal and Lignite
production was 352.60 million tonnes during 2001-2002 as against 332.58
million tonnes during 2000-2001, showing a growth of 6.0 per cent. |
|
|
|
The
Small Scale Industries registered a higher growth rate than the overall
industrial sector in terms of Number of Units, Production, Employment
and Exports. During 2002-2003, the number of Small Scale Industrial
(SSI) units was estimated at 35.72 lakh against 34.42 lakh in the
previous year registering an increase of 3.8 per cent. The estimated
value of production increased by 7.5 per cent i.e. Rs.514292 crore
in 2002-2003 from Rs.478456 crore during 2001-2002, while employment
went up to 199.65 lakh persons from 192.23 lakh persons during the
same period |
|
|
|
India
continues to make progress on export-oriented production in Electronics
and Computer technology. Software exports have grown at a compound
growth rate of over 50 per cent per year for the last five years.
Hardware exports have also grown sharply and reached a level of Rs.5871
crore in 2001-2002 showing a growth of 22.6 per cent when compared
with the previous year. Software exports at present level is $ 1 billion
a year. |
|
|
1.1.4
|
India’s
foreign exchange reserves position has strengthened substantially
from a reserve draw down of US$1.28 billion in 1990-91 to a reserve
build-up of US $ 11.76 billion in 2001-2002.The balance of payment
(BOP) has been in an overall surplus since 1996-97, with reserves
rising, on an average, by US$6.21 billion per annum during 1996-97
to 2001-2002. The current account deficit has come down from a level
of 3.1 per cent of GDP in 1990-91 to a current account surplus of
0.3 per cent of GDP in 2001-2002. On the capital account, inflows
have remained buoyant (except in 1995-96) bolstering the resources
during the period |
|
|
|
India’s
balance of payments in 2001-2002 exhibited mixed development. While
exports, on BOP basis remained stagnant at previous year’s level.
Imports declined by 2.8 per cent, thus resulting in a decline in merchandise
trade deficit, as per cent of GDP, from 3.1 per cent in 2000-2001
to 2.6 per cent in 2001-2002. The consequential trade deficit came
down from US$14.37 billion in 2000-2001 to US$12.70 billion in 2001-2002.
The net capital flows increased from US$8.41 billion in 2000-2001
to US$10.41 billion in 2001-2002. The provisional estimates for import
and export at current prices stood at Rs.2,13,225 crore ($43,882 million)
and Rs.1,85,211 crore ($38,115 million) respectively for April-December
2002. The total foreign exchange reserves (including gold and SDRs)
at the end of March 2002 amounted to US$54.11 billion as compared
with US$ 42.28 billion at the end of March 2001. |
|
|
|
The
Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-2007) has been prepared against a backdrop
of high expectations and aims at achieving an average growth rate
of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8 per cent per annum over the
period of 2002-2007. The decadal average annual growth rate of the
Indian economy, after fluctuating around 3.5 per cent for the decade
of the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, took a quantum leap to 5.7 per cent
in the decade of the 1980s and further the annual rate of growth rapidly
accelerated to around 7.5 per cent during 1994-95 to 1996-97, making
India one of the fastest growing countries in the world. |
|
|
| ASSAM’S
ECONOMY: |
1.2.0
|
The
growth of the State’s Economy seems to be encouraging during
2003-04 and is likely to register an upward trend of growth in the
coming years. The advance estimates of State Domestic Product for
the year 2003-2004 indicate that the growth rates of Net State Domestic
Product (NSDP) is estimated at 6.2 per cent at constant (1993-94)
prices and 10.5 per cent at current prices as compared to the growth
rates of 3.9 per cent and 7.8 per cent respectively for the year 2002-2003.
As per the said estimates the Per Capita Income is likely to attain
a level of Rs.6403 at constant (1993-94) prices and Rs.12593 at current
prices during 2003-2004. In terms of Net State Domestic Product (NSDP),
the State’s economy registered an annual growth of 3.90 percent
at constant (1993-94) prices during 2002-2003 (Quick estimates) as
against a growth rate of 3.09 percent during 2001-2002 (Provisional
estimates). At current prices the NSDP recorded a growth of 7.82 percent
in 2002-2003 (Quick estimates) as against 4.09 percent growth recorded
in the preceding year. So far as Per Capita Income is concerned a
growth of 2.66 percent in real term was recorded in 2002-2003 as against
1.95 percent recorded in 2001-2002. At current prices, the Per Capita
Income registered a growth of 6.53 percent in 2002-2003 as against
2.95 percent growth in 2001-2002.The share contribution of Agriculture
sector in NSDP of Assam in 2002-2003 was 29.60 percent at constant
(1993-94) prices and 30.34 percent at current prices as agianst 31.43
per ccent and 31.69 percent respectively in 2001-2002. The share contribution
to NSDP in respect of Mining and Quarrying, Manufacturing and Construction
during 2002-2003were 4.73 per cent, 9.23 percent and 6.63 percent
respectively at constant (1993-94) prices and at current prices the
same were 4.77 percent, 9.74 percent and 6.75 percent respectively.
The Trade, Hotel & Restaurent sector had a larger share of 15.26
percent at constant prices and 14.76 percent at current prices during
the year as against the share of 14.83 percent and 14.94 percent,
respectively during 2001-2002. The overall performance of the economy
of the State during the year under report was by and large encouraging
as discernible from the positive growth rates witnessed in some important
sectors of the economy of the State. |
|
|
1.2.1
|
Due
to adverse affect of natural calamities like floods etc. the perfomance
of the Agriculture Sector during 2002-2003 was not upto expectations.
During the year, the total production of Foodgrains Crops covered
by the crop forecast in the State has been estimated at 38.94 lakh
tonnes as against 40.23 lakh tonnes in 2001-2002. As per available
estimates, the production of Winter Rice recorded decrease to 26.71
lakh tonnes in 2002-2003 from 27.13 lakh tonnes in 2001-2002. Similarly,
the production of Summer Rice showed decrease to 6.22 lakh tonnes
in 2002-2003 from 6.53 lakh tonnes in 2001-2002 and the production
of Autumn Rice also declined to 4.45 lakh tonnes in 2002-2003 from
4.88 lakh tonnes in 2001-2002. Thus, the production of Rice which
is the most important Cereals Crop grown in the State has recorded
a decrease of 3.01 percent during the year. The production of Wheat
also decreased to 0.78 lakh tonnes during 2002-2003 from 0.85 lakh
tonnes in the previous year. The production of Pulses was marginally
lower at 0.60 lakh tonnes in 2001-2002 as against 0.55 lakh tonnes
in 2002-2003. The production of Rape and Mustard also decreased to
1.30 lakh tonnes in 2002-2003 from 1.37 lakh tonnes in the preceding
year. The production of Sugarcane (in terms of cane) recorded a decrease
to 9.16 lakh tonnes during 2002-2003 from 10.11 lakh tonnes during
2001-2002. So far as the production of Jute is concerned, the same
recorded increase to 6.91 lakh bales in 2002-2003 from 6.75 lakh bales
in the year before while the production of Mesta recorded a marginal
increase to 0.25 lakh bales during 2002-2003 from 0.24 lakh bales
in 2001-2002. In view of the mixed performance of the agricultural
sector the General Index of Agricultural Production (base triennium
ending 1981-82=100) for the State has recorded only a nominal increase
to the point of 165 in 2002-2003 (provisional) from the point of 164
in 2001-2002. Preliminary information available for the year 2003-2004
indicate a better production performance in repsect of crops like
Winter Rice, Maize and Sesamum while a fall in production is also
indicated in respect of crops like Jute, Mesta & Sugarcane during
the year under reference. |
|
|
1.2.2
|
In
the Manufacturing and Processing sector of the State, a mixed performance
in production could be observed during the year 2002-2003. Provisional
production data available for the year shows a positive growth in
the production of industrial items like Refinery Products, Cement,
Fertilizer etc. over the production level of the previous year. On
the other hand a decrease in production has been noticed in respect
of items like Tea processing, Grain Mill Products, Paper, Jute Textile
etc., during the said year. The overall industrial scenario of the
state is expected to improve considerably in near future due to efforts
made by the State Government through announcement of new Industrial
Policy mostly aimed at attracting pivate investors from outside. |
|
|
|
The
General Index of Industrial Production of the State (Base 1993-94=100)
stood at 132.46 in 2002-03 as against 125.87 in 2001-02 thereby recording
an increase of 5.2 per cent over the year. |
|
The
perfomance of Mining Sector in the State was not much satisfactory
during 2002-03. As per provisional data available the production of
Petroleum (Crude) decreased by 1.6 percent during 2002-2003 over the
previous year. Production of Coal, another important mineral item
also decreased by 4.8 percent during the same period. However, the
production of Natural Gas (Utilized) has increased by 1.8 percent
and that of Limestone by 1.5 percent during 2002-2003 over 2001-2002.
|
|
The
Index of Mineral Production of the State (Base 1993-94=100) decreased
to 97.47 in 2002-03 (P) from 101.76 in 2001-2002. In percentage term
the decrease was 4.2 over the year. |
|
|
1.2.3
|
The
overall Power Supply position in the State continued to be erratic
during the year under report. The installed capacity of power has
remained. i.e., 574.400 M. W. for six consecutive years. i.e. from
1997-98 to 2002-2003. On the other hand, the Generation of Power has
decreased from 934.960 (MU) in 2000-2001 to 840.406 (MU) in 2001-2002
and further to 746.094 (MU) in 2002-2003. During 2002-2003 the estimated
requirement of Power for the State was 3500.000 (MU) while the availablity
was 3304.737 (MU) thereby resulting shortage by about 5.60 percent.
In order to meet the shortage of power Supply the State continued
to purchase power from other sources. The net import of power by the
State was 2582.737 (MU) in 2002-2003 as against 2461.182 (MU) in 2001-2002.
|
|
|
1.2.4
|
The
total number of reporting Scheduled Commercial Bank Offices (including
Regional Rural Banks) in the State at the end of March, 2003 was 1216.
The volume of Deposits and Credit of these Banks stood at Rs.12921.31
crore and Rs.3695.12 crore repsectively at the end of the aforsaid
period. The Credit-Deposit Ratio in the state as on March, 2003 was
28.6 percent which was quite unsatisfactory when compared to the ratio
of 59.4 percent at the National level during the same period. |
|
|
1.2.5
|
The
behaviour of Price level can be observed from the movement of Consumer
Price Index Number for the Working Class Population and the Wholesale
Price Index Number for Agricultural Commodities. The average Consumer
Price Index Number for the Working Class Population (Base 1982=100)
for the State displayed a price rise of 2.16 percent in 2002 over
2001 as against 0.73 percent increase recorded in 2001 over 2000.
The annual average Wholesale Price Index Number for Agricultural Commodities
(Base 1993-94=100) stood at 161 in 2002-2003 as against 163 in 2001-2002
and 162 in 2000-2001. The Index thus displayed a marginal decrease
of 1.22 percent in 2002-2003 over 2001-2002. As far as the behaviour
of Retail Prices of essential commodities is concerned, it has been
observed that most of the commodities recorded moderate rise of different
variations in their prices. However, the price situation in the State
during 2002-2003 was found to have remained more or less steady. |
|
|
1.2.6
|
As
regards the Employment Sector, the number of persons employed in organized
economic activity (comprising both Public and Private Sectors) was
found to have decreased to 10.84 lakh at the end of December, 2002
(Provisional) from 11.31 lakh at the end of December, 2001 recording
a decrease of 4.2 percent over the period. The employment of women
in organised sector of the State was 321.9 thousand at the end of
December, 2002 which was 29.7 percent of the total employment. As
regards the scenario of manpower supply and demand, the data available
from the Employment Exchanges of Assam revealed that the total job
seekers in the Live Register increased to 15.72 lakh at the end of
December, 2002 from 15.25 lakh at end of December 2001 thereby showing
an increase of 3.1 percent. But placements have decreased to 747 from
942 during the same period showing a decrease of 20.7 percent. |
|
In
order to increase employment avenues through generation of gainful
employment opportunities the Government has been implementing various
schemes like Employment Assurence Scheme (EAS), Swarnajayanti Gram
Swarajgar Yojana (SGSY) and Special Swarnajayanti Gram Swarojgar Yojana
(Special SGSY) etc., at the same time which also aims at upliftment
of rural people at the grass root level. The concept of Self Help
Group (SHG) has been introduced to bring a revolution in the field
of self employment. Under the SGSY Scheme, a total of 58,458 Nos.
of SHGs have been formed covering about 7,02,000 Nos. of poor families
till the end of the year 2002-2003. Further, 34,660 Nos. of women
SHGs are also functioning in the State under SGSY as on March, 2003. |
|
It
is encouraging to observe that more and more people of the State are
taking keen interest in availing opportunities offered through implementation
of these schemes. A positive development is already under way in various
key sectors of the State’s rural economy as evident from the
achievements made in their repsective areas. |
|
Over
the recent few years the State has had to pass through a lot of constraints
such as stringent financial position, insurgency problem and recurrence
natural calamities in the shape of floods, erosion and at times draught,
thereby making the task of desired development difficult. However,
despite of such constraints, the State has been able to achieve considerable
progress in diverse fields as reflected in the growth of SDP of the
State for the last two-three years. |
